Thinking In Bets

Based on Annie Duke's framework, this helps you separate decision quality from outcomes, which matters when you're doing post-mortems or making calls with incomplete information. Instead of judging whether you were right, you evaluate whether your thinking process was sound at the time. Use it for pre-mortems, setting kill criteria, or just avoiding the trap of calling something a good decision because it happened to work out. The shift from "was I right?" to "was my process good?" is simple but cuts through a lot of hindsight bias and groupthink in team settings. Best for decisions where luck plays a role and you need to learn from results without getting distorted by them.

Install to Claude Code

npx -y skills add pmprompt/claude-plugin-product-management --skill thinking-in-bets --agent claude-code