Summary
You'd reach for this when you're actively trading on prediction markets and need programmatic risk management beyond gut feel. It exposes Kelly criterion position sizing so you're not over-betting profitable edges, EV calculations to quantify expected value across positions, and drawdown protection to keep losing streaks from wiping you out. Useful if you're building trading bots or decision tools for platforms like Manifold, Polymarket, or Metaculus where you need systematic guardrails on bet sizing. The stdio transport makes it straightforward to pipe market odds and bankroll data through for position recommendations.
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Tools
Public tool metadata for what this MCP can expose to an agent.
7 tools
calculate_kelly_sizeCalculate the optimal position size for a prediction market trade using the Kelly criterion (quarter-Kelly by default). Returns the recommended dollar amount to risk, the raw Kelly fraction, and whether the size was capped by the bankroll-percentage limit.6 params
Calculate the optimal position size for a prediction market trade using the Kelly criterion (quarter-Kelly by default). Returns the recommended dollar amount to risk, the raw Kelly fraction, and whether the size was capped by the bankroll-percentage limit.
Parameters* required
bankrollnumberAvailable capital in USD.
min_sizenumberMinimum position size in USD (default $1.00).default: 1
entry_pricenumberCurrent market price for the YES contract (0 < price < 1).
probabilitynumberYour model's probability of the YES outcome (0 < p < 1).
kelly_fractionnumberScaling multiplier for full Kelly (default 0.25 = quarter-Kelly).default: 0.25
max_position_pctnumberHard cap as % of bankroll per trade (default 5.0%).default: 5
calculate_evCalculate the expected value of a YES contract after platform fees. Returns EV, edge (model prob − market price), fee per leg, round-trip fee, and whether EV is positive. Supports Polymarket (2% flat) and Kalshi (7% × P × (1−P)) fee models.3 params
Calculate the expected value of a YES contract after platform fees. Returns EV, edge (model prob − market price), fee per leg, round-trip fee, and whether EV is positive. Supports Polymarket (2% flat) and Kalshi (7% × P × (1−P)) fee models.
Parameters* required
platformstringFee model: 'polymarket' or 'kalshi'.one of
polymarket · kalshidefault: polymarketmarket_pricenumberCurrent YES price on the exchange (0 < price < 1).
model_probabilitynumberYour model's probability of YES (0 < p < 1).
calculate_feeCalculate the fee per leg for a given platform and contract price. Polymarket: flat 2% of price. Kalshi: 7% × P × (1−P).2 params
Calculate the fee per leg for a given platform and contract price. Polymarket: flat 2% of price. Kalshi: 7% × P × (1−P).
Parameters* required
pricenumberContract price as a probability (0 < price < 1).
platformstringFee model: 'polymarket' or 'kalshi'.one of
polymarket · kalshicheck_risk_statusCheck current risk management status. Returns ACTIVE (safe to trade), PAUSED (daily loss limit hit — resume tomorrow), or SHUTDOWN (max drawdown exceeded — manual review required). Also returns warnings when approaching limits.5 params
Check current risk management status. Returns ACTIVE (safe to trade), PAUSED (daily loss limit hit — resume tomorrow), or SHUTDOWN (max drawdown exceeded — manual review required). Also returns warnings when approaching limits.
Parameters* required
bankrollnumberCurrent bankroll in USD.
daily_pnlnumberToday's realised P&L in USD (negative = loss).
peak_bankrollnumberHighest bankroll ever reached in USD.
drawdown_limit_pctnumberDrawdown ceiling as % of peak bankroll (default 25%).default: 25
daily_loss_limit_pctnumberDaily loss ceiling as % of peak bankroll (default 10%).default: 10
validate_tradePre-trade risk check. Projects the worst case (total loss of proposed_size) and checks whether it would breach daily loss or drawdown limits. Returns approved/rejected with a reason and projected percentages.6 params
Pre-trade risk check. Projects the worst case (total loss of proposed_size) and checks whether it would breach daily loss or drawdown limits. Returns approved/rejected with a reason and projected percentages.
Parameters* required
bankrollnumberCurrent bankroll in USD.
daily_pnlnumberToday's realised P&L in USD (negative = loss).
peak_bankrollnumberHighest bankroll ever reached in USD.
proposed_sizenumberDollar amount of the proposed trade.
drawdown_limit_pctnumberDrawdown ceiling as % of peak bankroll (default 25%).default: 25
daily_loss_limit_pctnumberDaily loss ceiling as % of peak bankroll (default 10%).default: 10
get_exposureSummarise portfolio exposure relative to bankroll. Returns total exposure %, largest position %, number of positions, and a concentration risk flag (triggered when any single position exceeds 10% of bankroll).2 params
Summarise portfolio exposure relative to bankroll. Returns total exposure %, largest position %, number of positions, and a concentration risk flag (triggered when any single position exceeds 10% of bankroll).
Parameters* required
bankrollnumberTotal capital in USD.
positionsarrayList of position objects. Each must have a 'size' key with the dollar amount at risk. Example: [{"size": 50.0}]
simulate_drawdownSimulate a hypothetical sequence of losses against a starting bankroll. Shows when daily loss and drawdown limits would trigger, and reports the maximum drawdown percentage reached.4 params
Simulate a hypothetical sequence of losses against a starting bankroll. Shows when daily loss and drawdown limits would trigger, and reports the maximum drawdown percentage reached.
Parameters* required
bankrollnumberStarting bankroll in USD.
loss_sequencearrayList of loss amounts in USD (positive = money lost, negative = gain). E.g. [30, 40, 50] simulates three losses.
drawdown_limit_pctnumberDrawdown ceiling as % of peak bankroll (default 25%).default: 25
daily_loss_limit_pctnumberDaily loss ceiling as % of peak bankroll (default 10%).default: 10
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Keep your Mac awake while Claude Code and 40+ AI agents run. Sleeps when they're idle.
One time payment $9 →Integrate web data into your AI product. One API to scrape website & brand data.
Get API Key Now →Agent, run crypto. Access onchain data & trade routes via 1inch.
Install now →On Capafy, your Skill runs online 24/7 as an agent product, and you get paid every time someone uses it.
Start earning →